Increasing travel distances

Since 1950, travel distances have increased sharply in the developed world, as well as in developing countries. This increase is likely to continue and the only question is at what rate it will do so, which will depend on population and income. The figures here are substantially lower than those being suggested by the International Transport Forum1, where the growth in the OECD countries is expected to be 10% to 50% higher in 2050 (on 2010 levels) in the passenger sector and between 50% and 130% in the freight sector. Outside the OECD, levels will be much higher at about 3 times greater for passenger mobility and between 2.5 times and 5.5 times for the freight sector. It is expected that CO2 emission levels will increase by between 1.5 times and 2.4 times the 2010 levels, reflecting the greater efficiency within the vehicle fleet, the use of new technologies and better quality fuels (OECD/ITF, 2012).
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