Agriculture and food challenges in major world regions in 2050: lessons from the Agrimonde exercise
For large parts of the world, two contrasting scenarios (the AGO trend-based scenario and the AG1 scenario of a transition to agro-ecology and the control of food demand) make consistent assumptions on the magnitude of food demand and agricultural production. In Asia, and in North Africa and the Middle East, the scenarios show the limits of the production potential at the continuing rate of population growth (although AGO forecasts the continuation of an explosion in crop yields in Asia, while AG1 highlights what could happen if diets do not reach the peaks of Western ones). In the OECD, Latin America and former USSR countries, the potential for increased production is still significant (increase in cultivated area and higher yields) when compared to a slow growing or controlled demand. Despite its potential for increased production, the rate of population growth and therefore demand in sub-Saharan Africa will represent a major challenge, even to obtain a minimum level of food availability per capita, which could make this region dependent on imports if improvement in agricultural productivity is not fast enough.